Newsletter summary
The urgency of the Fed's interest rate cut is reducedMappygameDomestic macro expectations are improving; copper supply shrinks but demand is weak, and copper prices are expected to fall back after the shock in May, with fluctuations in the range of 76000-83000 yuan / ton for Shanghai copper and 9500-10200 US dollars / ton for Lun copper. The risk is that overseas inflation slows more than expected.
Text of news flash
[global economic fluctuations affect copper prices expected to fall after the shock in May] the US economy is sound, re-inflationary expectations are rising, the urgency of Fed interest rate cuts is reduced, and dollar liquidity is protected. European economies are at risk of recession or start cutting interest rates in the middle of the year. China's economic growth rate was stable in the first quarter and macro expectations improved. On the supply side, the resumption of copper production in Panama is uncertain, domestic production is declining and supply is tight. On the demand side, demand in traditional industries is weak, refineries have reduced production, and tight balance expectations have not been fulfilled. In terms of inventory, the removal of inventory at home is slow, while overseas inventory remains low. Copper prices are expected to fall back in May, with a range of 76000-83000 yuan / ton for Shanghai copper and 9500-10200 US dollars / ton for Lun copper. Risk factors include a slowdown in overseas inflation and early interest rate cuts by central banks in the US and Europe. [disclaimer] this article only represents a personal point of view, investment should be cautious.